Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (), Gaurav Ganti, Quentin Lejeune, Biqing Zhu, Peter Pfleiderer, Ruben Prütz, Philippe Ciais, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Thomas Gasser, Matthew J. Gidden, Chahan M. Kropf, Fabrice Lacroix, Robin Lamboll, Rosanne Martyr, Fabien Maussion, Jamie W. McCaughey, Malte Meinshausen, Matthias Mengel, Zebedee Nicholls, Yann Quilcaille, Benjamin Sanderson, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Jana Sillmann, Christopher J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Emily Theokritoff, Rachel Warren, Jeff Price and Joeri Rogelj
Additional contact information
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Gaurav Ganti: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Quentin Lejeune: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Biqing Zhu: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Peter Pfleiderer: Climate Analytics
Ruben Prütz: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Philippe Ciais: LSCE
Thomas L. Frölicher: University of Bern
Sabine Fuss: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Thomas Gasser: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Matthew J. Gidden: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Chahan M. Kropf: ETH Zürich
Fabrice Lacroix: University of Bern
Robin Lamboll: Imperial College London
Rosanne Martyr: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Fabien Maussion: University of Innsbruck
Jamie W. McCaughey: ETH Zürich
Malte Meinshausen: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Matthias Mengel: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Zebedee Nicholls: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Yann Quilcaille: ETH Zürich
Benjamin Sanderson: Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research
Sonia I. Seneviratne: ETH Zürich
Jana Sillmann: University of Hamburg
Christopher J. Smith: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Norman J. Steinert: Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research
Emily Theokritoff: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Rachel Warren: University of East Anglia
Jeff Price: University of East Anglia
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature, 2024, vol. 634, issue 8033, 366-373

Abstract: Abstract Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2–5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9

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