Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 ce

Guobao Xu, Ellie Broadman, Isabel Dorado-Liñán, Lara Klippel, Matthew Meko, Ulf Büntgen, Tom Mil, Jan Esper, Björn Gunnarson, Claudia Hartl, Paul J. Krusic, Hans W. Linderholm, Fredrik C. Ljungqvist, Francis Ludlow, Momchil Panayotov, Andrea Seim, Rob Wilson, Diana Zamora-Reyes and Valerie Trouet ()
Additional contact information
Guobao Xu: Northwest University
Ellie Broadman: University of Arizona
Isabel Dorado-Liñán: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Lara Klippel: Deutscher Wetterdienst
Matthew Meko: University of Arizona
Ulf Büntgen: University of Cambridge
Tom Mil: University of Arizona
Jan Esper: Czech Academy of Sciences (CzechGlobe)
Björn Gunnarson: Stockholm University
Claudia Hartl: Nature Rings – Environmental Research and Education
Paul J. Krusic: University of Cambridge
Hans W. Linderholm: University of Gothenburg
Fredrik C. Ljungqvist: Stockholm University
Francis Ludlow: Trinity College Dublin
Momchil Panayotov: University of Forestry
Andrea Seim: University of Freiburg
Rob Wilson: University of St Andrews
Diana Zamora-Reyes: University of Arizona
Valerie Trouet: University of Arizona

Nature, 2024, vol. 634, issue 8034, 600-608

Abstract: Abstract The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1–3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300–2004 ce (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 ce as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x

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