The Ronne Ice Shelf survived the last interglacial

Eric W. Wolff (), Robert Mulvaney, Mackenzie M. Grieman, Helene M. Hoffmann, Jack Humby, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Rachael H. Rhodes, Isobel F. Rowell, Louise C. Sime, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas F. Stocker, Amaelle Landais, Frédéric Parrenin, Eric J. Steig, Marina Dütsch and Nicholas R. Golledge
Additional contact information
Eric W. Wolff: University of Cambridge
Robert Mulvaney: British Antarctic Survey
Mackenzie M. Grieman: University of Cambridge
Helene M. Hoffmann: University of Cambridge
Jack Humby: British Antarctic Survey
Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles: University of Cambridge
Rachael H. Rhodes: University of Cambridge
Isobel F. Rowell: University of Cambridge
Louise C. Sime: University of Cambridge
Hubertus Fischer: University of Bern
Thomas F. Stocker: University of Bern
Amaelle Landais: Université Paris-Saclay
Frédéric Parrenin: CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE
Eric J. Steig: University of Washington
Marina Dütsch: University of Vienna
Nicholas R. Golledge: Victoria University of Wellington

Nature, 2025, vol. 638, issue 8049, 133-137

Abstract: Abstract The fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)1 is the largest cause of uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections. In the last interglacial (LIG) around 125,000 years ago, data suggest that sea level was several metres higher than today2–4, and required a significant contribution from Antarctic ice loss, with WAIS usually implicated. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean were warmer than today5–8, by amounts comparable to those expected by 2100 under moderate to high future warming scenarios. However, direct evidence about the size of WAIS in the LIG is sparse. Here we use sea salt data from an ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, adjacent to WAIS, to show that, during most of the LIG, the Ronne Ice Shelf was still in place, and close to its current extent. Water isotope data are consistent with a retreat of WAIS9, but seem inconsistent with more dramatic model realizations10 in which both WAIS and the large Antarctic ice shelves were lost. This new constraint calls for a reappraisal of other elements of the LIG sea-level budget. It also weakens the observational basis that motivated model simulations projecting the highest end of projections for future rates of sea-level rise to 2300 and beyond.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08394-w

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