Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

Myles R. Allen (), David J. Frame, Pierre Friedlingstein, Nathan P. Gillett, Giacomo Grassi, Jonathan M. Gregory, William Hare, Jo House, Chris Huntingford, Stuart Jenkins, Chris D. Jones, Reto Knutti, Jason A. Lowe, H. Damon Matthews, Malte Meinshausen, Nicolai Meinshausen, Glen P. Peters, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Sarah Raper, Joeri Rogelj, Peter A. Stott, Susan Solomon, Thomas F. Stocker, Andrew J. Weaver and Kirsten Zickfeld
Additional contact information
Myles R. Allen: University of Oxford
David J. Frame: University of Canterbury
Pierre Friedlingstein: University of Exeter
Nathan P. Gillett: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Giacomo Grassi: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Jonathan M. Gregory: University of Reading
William Hare: Climate Analytics
Jo House: University of Bristol
Chris Huntingford: UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Stuart Jenkins: University of Oxford
Chris D. Jones: The Met Office
Reto Knutti: ETH Zurich
Jason A. Lowe: University of Leeds
H. Damon Matthews: Concordia University
Malte Meinshausen: University of Melbourne
Nicolai Meinshausen: ETH Zurich
Glen P. Peters: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Gian-Kasper Plattner: Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Sarah Raper: Manchester Metropolitan University
Joeri Rogelj: Imperial College London
Peter A. Stott: The Met Office
Susan Solomon: MIT
Thomas F. Stocker: University of Bern
Andrew J. Weaver: University of Victoria
Kirsten Zickfeld: Simon Fraser University

Nature, 2025, vol. 638, issue 8050, 343-350

Abstract: Abstract Achieving net-zero global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), with declining emissions of other greenhouse gases, is widely expected to halt global warming. CO2 emissions will continue to drive warming until fully balanced by active anthropogenic CO2 removals. For practical reasons, however, many greenhouse gas accounting systems allow some ‘passive’ CO2 uptake, such as enhanced vegetation growth owing to CO2 fertilization, to be included as removals in the definition of net anthropogenic emissions. By including passive CO2 uptake, nominal net-zero emissions would not halt global warming, undermining the Paris Agreement. Here we discuss measures to address this problem, to ensure residual fossil fuel use does not cause further global warming: land management categories should be disaggregated in emissions reporting and targets to better separate the role of passive CO2 uptake; where possible, claimed removals should be additional to passive uptake; and targets should acknowledge the need for Geological Net Zero, meaning one tonne of CO2 permanently restored to the solid Earth for every tonne still generated from fossil sources. We also argue that scientific understanding of Net Zero provides a basis for allocating responsibility for the protection of passive carbon sinks during and after the transition to Geological Net Zero.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08326-8

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