High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano (), Yves Tramblay, Fergus Reig, José C. González-Hidalgo, Santiago Beguería, Michele Brunetti, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Leonardo Patalen, Aleksandra Kržič, Piero Lionello, Miguel M. Lima, Ricardo M. Trigo, Ahmed M. El-Kenawy, Ali Eddenjal, Murat Türkes, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Veronica Manara, Maurizio Maugeri, Wafae Badi, Shifa Mathbout, Renato Bertalanič, Lilia Bocheva, Ismail Dabanli, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Brigitte Dubuisson, Salah Sahabi-Abed, Fayez Abdulla, Abbas Fayad, Sabina Hodzic, Mirjana Ivanov, Ivan Radevski, Dhais Peña-Angulo, Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Ricardo García-Herrera, Magí Franquesa, Amar Halifa-Marín, Maria Adell-Michavila, Ivan Noguera, David Barriopedro, Jose M. Garrido-Perez, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Miguel Andres-Martin, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Maria Carmen Llasat, Yannis Markonis, Rabeb Selmi, Soumaya Rached, Slavica Radovanović, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Aurélien Ribes, Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi, Siham Bataineh, El Mahdi El Khalki, Sayed Robaa, Amina Boucetta, Karam Alsafadi, Nikos Mamassis, Safwan Mohammed, Beatriz Fernández-Duque, Sorin Cheval, Sara Moutia, Aleksandra Stevkov, Silvana Stevkova, M. Yolanda Luna and Vera Potopová
Additional contact information
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Yves Tramblay: Univ. de Montpellier IRD
Fergus Reig: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
José C. González-Hidalgo: CSIC–Universidad de Zaragoza
Santiago Beguería: CSIC–Universidad de Zaragoza
Michele Brunetti: National Research Council – Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC)
Ksenija Cindrić Kalin: Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service
Leonardo Patalen: Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service
Aleksandra Kržič: Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Piero Lionello: University of Salento
Miguel M. Lima: Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Universidade de Lisboa
Ricardo M. Trigo: Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Universidade de Lisboa
Ahmed M. El-Kenawy: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Ali Eddenjal: Climate Directorate
Murat Türkes: Bogazici University Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies and Institute of Science and Engineering
Aristeidis Koutroulis: Technical University of Crete
Veronica Manara: Università degli Studi di Milano
Maurizio Maugeri: Università degli Studi di Milano
Wafae Badi: Direction Générale de la Météorologie
Shifa Mathbout: European University Cyprus
Renato Bertalanič: Slovenian Environment Agency
Lilia Bocheva: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
Ismail Dabanli: Istanbul Technical University
Alexandru Dumitrescu: Meteo Romania (National Meteorological Administration)
Brigitte Dubuisson: Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques
Salah Sahabi-Abed: Office National de la Météorologie, Direction de la Climatologie
Fayez Abdulla: Jordan University of Science and Technology
Abbas Fayad: University of Saskatchewan
Sabina Hodzic: Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Hydrometeorological Institute
Mirjana Ivanov: Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro
Ivan Radevski: Ss. Cyril and Methodius University
Dhais Peña-Angulo: CSIC–Universidad de Zaragoza
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz: Universidad de la Rioja
Fernando Domínguez-Castro: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo: Universidade de Lisboa
Ricardo García-Herrera: Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Magí Franquesa: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Amar Halifa-Marín: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Maria Adell-Michavila: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Ivan Noguera: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
David Barriopedro: Instituto de Geociencias (CSIC-UCM)
Jose M. Garrido-Perez: Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Cesar Azorin-Molina: Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), Moncada
Miguel Andres-Martin: Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), Moncada
Luis Gimeno: Universidade de Vigo
Raquel Nieto: Universidade de Vigo
Maria Carmen Llasat: University of Barcelona
Yannis Markonis: Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Rabeb Selmi: National Institute of Meteorology
Soumaya Rached: National Institute of Meteorology
Slavica Radovanović: Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux: Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques
Aurélien Ribes: CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France CNRS
Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi: Cadi Ayyad University
Siham Bataineh: Jordan University of Science and Technology
El Mahdi El Khalki: University Mohammed VI Polytechnic
Sayed Robaa: Cairo University
Amina Boucetta: Office National de la Météorologie, Direction de la Climatologie
Karam Alsafadi: Xiamen University
Nikos Mamassis: National Technical University of Athens
Safwan Mohammed: University of Debrecen
Beatriz Fernández-Duque: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
Sorin Cheval: Meteo Romania (National Meteorological Administration)
Sara Moutia: Direction Générale de la Météorologie
Aleksandra Stevkov: Hydrometeorological Service of Republic of North Macedonia
Silvana Stevkova: Hydrometeorological Service of Republic of North Macedonia
M. Yolanda Luna: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET)
Vera Potopová: Czech University of Life Sciences Prague

Nature, 2025, vol. 639, issue 8055, 658-666

Abstract: Abstract State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2–4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots10.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6

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