Decadal changes in atmospheric circulation detected in cloud motion vectors

Larry Di Girolamo (), Guangyu Zhao, Gan Zhang, Zhuo Wang, Jesse Loveridge and Arka Mitra
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Larry Di Girolamo: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Guangyu Zhao: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Gan Zhang: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Zhuo Wang: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Jesse Loveridge: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Arka Mitra: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Nature, 2025, vol. 643, issue 8073, 983-987

Abstract: Abstract Changing atmospheric circulations shift global weather patterns and their extremes, profoundly affecting human societies and ecosystems. Studies using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data1–9 indicate diverse circulation changes in recent decades but show discrepancies in magnitude and even direction, underscoring the urgent need for validation with independent, climate-quality measurements3. Here we show statistically significant changes in tropospheric circulation over the past two decades using satellite-observed, height-resolved cloud motion vectors from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)10,11. Upper tropospheric cloud motion speeds in the mid-latitudes have increased by up to about 4 m s−1 decade−1. This acceleration is primarily because of the strengthening of meridional flow, potentially indicating more poleward storm tracks or intensified extratropical cyclones. The Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropics shifted poleward at rates of 0.42 ± 0.22 and 0.02 ± 0.14° latitude decade−1 (95% confidence interval), respectively, whereas the corresponding polar fronts shifted at rates of 0.37 ± 0.31 and 0.31 ± 0.21° latitude decade−1. We also show that the widely used ERA5 (ref. 12) reanalysis winds subsampled to the MISR are in good agreement with the climatological values and trends of the MISR but indicate probable ERA5 biases in the upper troposphere. These MISR-based observations provide critical benchmarks for refining reanalysis and climate models to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on cloud and atmospheric circulations.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09242-1

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