Tropical response to ocean circulation slowdown raises future drought risk

Pedro N. DiNezio (), Timothy M. Shanahan, Tianyi Sun, Chijun Sun, Xian Wu, Allison Lawman, David Lea, Masa Kageyama, Ute Merkel, Matthias Prange, Bette Otto-Bliesner and Xu Zhang
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Pedro N. DiNezio: University of Colorado Boulder
Timothy M. Shanahan: The University of Texas at Austin
Tianyi Sun: Environmental Defense Fund
Chijun Sun: University of California, Davis
Xian Wu: The University of Texas at Dallas
Allison Lawman: Colorado College
David Lea: University of California
Masa Kageyama: l’Environnement/Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace
Ute Merkel: University of Bremen
Matthias Prange: University of Bremen
Bette Otto-Bliesner: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Xu Zhang: British Antarctic Survey

Nature, 2025, vol. 644, issue 8077, 676-683

Abstract: Abstract Projections of tropical rainfall under global warming remain highly uncertain1,2, largely because of an unclear climate response to a potential weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)3. Although an AMOC slowdown can substantially alter tropical rainfall patterns4–8, the physical mechanisms linking high-latitude changes to tropical hydroclimate are poorly understood11. Here we demonstrate that an AMOC slowdown drives widespread shifts in tropical rainfall through the propagation of high-latitude cooling into the tropical North Atlantic. We identify and validate this mechanism using climate model simulations and palaeoclimate records from Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1)—a past period marked by pronounced AMOC weakening9,10. In models, prevailing easterly and westerly winds communicate the climate signal to the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean through the transport of cold air generated over the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. Air–sea interactions transmit the response across the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, altering rainfall patterns as far as Indonesia, the tropical Andes and northern Australia. A similar teleconnection emerges under global warming scenarios, producing a consistent multi-model pattern of tropical hydroclimatic change. These palaeo-validated projections show widespread drying across Mesoamerica, the Amazon and West Africa, highlighting an elevated risk of severe drought for vulnerable human and ecological systems.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09319-x

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