Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment

Nerilie J. Abram (), Ariaan Purich, Matthew H. England, Felicity S. McCormack, Jan M. Strugnell, Dana M. Bergstrom, Tessa R. Vance, Tobias Stål, Barbara Wienecke, Petra Heil, Edward W. Doddridge, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Thomas J. Williams, Anya M. Reading, Andrew Mackintosh, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, Ann Kristin Klose, Philip W. Boyd, Steven L. Chown and Sharon A. Robinson
Additional contact information
Nerilie J. Abram: The Australian National University
Ariaan Purich: Monash University
Matthew H. England: University of New South Wales
Felicity S. McCormack: Monash University
Jan M. Strugnell: James Cook University
Dana M. Bergstrom: University of Wollongong
Tessa R. Vance: University of Tasmania
Tobias Stål: University of Tasmania
Barbara Wienecke: Australian Antarctic Division
Petra Heil: University of Tasmania
Edward W. Doddridge: University of Tasmania
Jean-Baptiste Sallée: Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN-IPSL)
Thomas J. Williams: University of Tasmania
Anya M. Reading: University of Tasmania
Andrew Mackintosh: Monash University
Ronja Reese: Northumbria University
Ricarda Winkelmann: Integrative Earth System Science
Ann Kristin Klose: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Philip W. Boyd: University of Tasmania
Steven L. Chown: Monash University
Sharon A. Robinson: University of Wollongong

Nature, 2025, vol. 644, issue 8077, 621-633

Abstract: Abstract Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO2 emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades. Regime shifts are occurring in Antarctic and Southern Ocean biological systems through habitat transformation or exceedance of physiological thresholds, and compounding breeding failures are increasing extinction risk. Amplifying feedbacks are common between these abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, and stabilizing Earth’s climate with minimal overshoot of 1.5 °C will be imperative alongside global adaptation measures to minimise and prepare for the far-reaching impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean abrupt changes.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5

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