Temperature-related hospitalization burden under climate change

Shujie Liao (), Wei Pan (), Li Wen, Rongkai Chen, Dongyang Pan, Renjie Wang, Cheng Hu, Hongbo Duan, Hong Weng, Chenxiao Tian, Wenxuan Kong, Jinghan Ruan, Yichuan Zhang, Xi Ming, Xianbin Zhang and Xinghuan Wang ()
Additional contact information
Shujie Liao: Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University
Wei Pan: Renmin University of China
Li Wen: Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University
Rongkai Chen: Renmin University of China
Dongyang Pan: Renmin University of China
Renjie Wang: Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University
Cheng Hu: Yangzhou University
Hongbo Duan: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Hong Weng: Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University
Chenxiao Tian: Renmin University of China
Wenxuan Kong: Renmin University of China
Jinghan Ruan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Yichuan Zhang: Renmin University of China
Xi Ming: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xianbin Zhang: Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Xinghuan Wang: Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University

Nature, 2025, vol. 644, issue 8078, 960-968

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has markedly increased adverse effects on human health and economic growth1–3. However, few studies have differentiated the impacts of extreme temperatures at the city level and analysed the future implications for human health under various climate change scenarios4–6. Here we leverage data on historical relationships among six kinds of climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) and associated hospitalizations and temperatures across 301 cities (more than 90% of all cities) and more than 7,000 hospitals in China, and use a nonlinear distributed lag model. This study projects hospitalization risks associated with extreme temperatures through to the year 2100 and develops the hospitalization burden economic index to assess the burden under three carbon emission scenarios across cities. Five dimensions, including spatial distribution, disease categories, population age groups, future time horizons and carbon emission development pathways, have been evaluated. Historical data indicate a higher incidence of temperature-related risks among the CSDs in northwestern and southwestern China. Notably, gestation-related disease risks are associated with increased vulnerability to extreme heat in specific regions. The projections show that under current thermal conditions without adaptations, the excess hospitalizations from extreme heat will reach 0.6, 3.8 and 5.1 million by 2100 under the low-, middle- and high-emission scenarios, respectively. These findings highlight the need for targeted mitigation strategies to reduce uneven climate-related hospitalization risks and economic burdens while accounting for differences in city geography, extreme temperatures, population groups and carbon emission development pathways.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09352-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:nature:v:644:y:2025:i:8078:d:10.1038_s41586-025-09352-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09352-w

Access Statistics for this article

Nature is currently edited by Magdalena Skipper

More articles in Nature from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().