Long-range PM2.5 pollution and health impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires

Qiang Zhang (), Yuexuanzi Wang, Qingyang Xiao, Guannan Geng, Steven J. Davis, Xiaodong Liu, Jin Yang, Jiajun Liu, Wenyu Huang, Changpei He, Binhe Luo, Randall V. Martin, Michael Brauer, James T. Randerson and Kebin He
Additional contact information
Qiang Zhang: Tsinghua University
Yuexuanzi Wang: Tsinghua University
Qingyang Xiao: Tsinghua University
Guannan Geng: Tsinghua University
Steven J. Davis: Stanford University
Xiaodong Liu: Tsinghua University
Jin Yang: Tsinghua University
Jiajun Liu: Tsinghua University
Wenyu Huang: Tsinghua University
Changpei He: Tsinghua University
Binhe Luo: Beijing Normal University
Randall V. Martin: Washington University in St. Louis
Michael Brauer: University of British Columbia
James T. Randerson: University of California, Irvine
Kebin He: Tsinghua University

Nature, 2025, vol. 645, issue 8081, 672-678

Abstract: Abstract Smoke from extreme wildfires in Canada adversely affected air quality in many regions in 20231,2. Here we use satellite observations, machine learning and a chemical transport model to quantify global and regional PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) exposure and human health impacts related to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. We find that the fires increased annual PM2.5 exposure worldwide by 0.17 μg m–3 (95% confidence interval, 0.09–0.26 μg m–3). North America had the largest increase in annual mean exposure (1.08 μg m–3; 0.82–1.34 μg m–3), but there were also increases in Europe (0.41 μg m–3; 0.32–0.50 μg m–3) owing to long-range transport. Annual mean PM2.5 exposure in Canada increased by 3.82 μg m–3 (3.00–4.64 μg m–3). In the USA, the contribution of the Canadian fires to increased PM2.5 was 1.49 μg m–3 (1.22–1.77 μg m–3), four times as large as the contribution from the 2023 wildfires originating in the USA. We find that 354 million (277–421 million) people in North America and Europe were exposed to daily PM2.5 air pollution caused by Canadian wildfires in 2023. We estimate that 5,400 (3,400–7,400) acute deaths in North America and 64,300 (37,800–90,900) chronic deaths in North America and Europe were attributable to PM2.5 exposure to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Our results highlight the far-reaching PM2.5 pollution and health burden that large wildfires can have in a single year.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09482-1

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