Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Chris T. Perry (), Didier M. Bakker, Alice E. Webb, Steeve Comeau, Ben P. Harvey, Christopher E. Cornwall, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes, John Morris, Ian C. Enochs, Lauren T. Toth, Aaron O’Dea, Erin M. Dillon, Erik H. Meesters and William F. Precht
Additional contact information
Chris T. Perry: University of Exeter
Didier M. Bakker: University of Exeter
Alice E. Webb: University of Exeter
Steeve Comeau: Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche
Ben P. Harvey: University of Tsukuba
Christopher E. Cornwall: Victoria University of Wellington
Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México
Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes: Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México
John Morris: University of Miami
Ian C. Enochs: NOAA
Lauren T. Toth: U.S. Geological Survey, St Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Aaron O’Dea: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Erin M. Dillon: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Erik H. Meesters: Wageningen University & Research
William F. Precht: Coastal and Marine Sciences

Nature, 2025, vol. 646, issue 8085, 619-626

Abstract: Abstract Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk1,2. This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors3. Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability4,5. Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2–4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3–0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7–1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth6,7, but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3–0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09439-4

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