What Determined the Depth of Recession?

E. Gurvich and Ilya Prilepskiy
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E. Gurvich: Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2010, issue 8, 55-79

Abstract: The factors that determined substantial cross-country variation of output decline during the recent recession are discussed. The regression analysis is performed for the sample of 172 economies, as well as for the sub-samples of developing and oil-exporting economies. Regression results indicate that three distinct factors had a significant impact on output decline, viz. financial shocks, trade shocks, and precrisis economic imbalances. Explanatory power of the econometric model obtained is fairly large. The contribution of crisis decline factors to the depth of recession is calculated for the developing and emerging economies on average, as well as for Russia. The results of the analysis are used to provide recommendations for reducing the vulnerability of Russian economy to future crises.

Keywords: crisis decline factors; financial and trade shocks; regression analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F01 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2010:i:8:p:55-79

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