Sudden Turn

Ya. Mirkin
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Ya. Mirkin: Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2015, vol. 26, issue 2, 196-201

Abstract: The article reveals the main constraints to the economic development and growth in Russia, stemming from the current economic model, the nature of the financial system, and the existing global risks and conflicts. The basic scenarios according to which the macroeconomic situation in Russia will develop are given. The probability of possible scenarios is estimated, taking into account the standards of social behaviour and the traditional cultural values. We discuss in detail the strategy of "sudden turn", based on a pragmatic liberalism, the principles of developmental economics and the experiences of countries that have achieved the economic miracle after World War II. Moreover, the article discloses the components of macroeconomic policy that might lead Russia to the path of outrunning economic growth and "catching up" modernization. In particular, it shows the key elements of monetary, interest rate, exchange rate, fiscal, tax, investment, price, and capital account policies, as well as policies in the fields of ownership and anti-monopoly regulation.

Keywords: economic reality; scenario; catching up modernization; economic miracle; developmental state; pragmatic liberalism; developmental finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E61 E66 O11 O16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2015:i:26:p:196-201

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