Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-2030
Vladimir Popov ()
Journal of the New Economic Association, 2015, vol. 27, issue 3, 163-181
Uzbekistan in recent 10 years is an extremely successful economy - high growth (8% a year), low domestic and international debt, undervalued exchange rate, relatively even distribution of income, creation from scratch of competitive export oriented auto industry. It is important though to avoid "dizziness from success" and to envisage possible growth traps in the future. Two unfavourable scenarios are discussed - negative terms of trade shock due to the decline in cotton, gas and gold prices (a deterioration of the current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as possible government responses to these shocks, in particular, changes in industrial policy. It is argued that current industrial policy - support of heavy chemistry industries (production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas) with relatively low level and growth rates of TFP - can be less efficient than previous successful support of auto industry.
Keywords: Uzbekistan; scenarios of economic development in 2015-2030; industrial policy; reaction to shocks; terms of trade; total factor productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E60 F43 O40 O4 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2015:i:27:p:163-181
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