Trends in the development of world trade in recent decades and current challenges for its development

Alexander Knobel, N. Pyzhikov and T. Aliev
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N. Pyzhikov: Institute of International Economics and Finance at the Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia
T. Aliev: Russian APEC study Center under RANEPA, Moscow, Russia

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2020, vol. 45, issue 1, 174-182

Abstract: Over the past 30 years the world trade has undergone significant changes due to a combination of factors, including the establishment of the WTO and the rules of the multilateral trading system, the emergence of a network of regional trade agreements as well as deeper forms of integration, the increasing role of developing countries. This paper analyzes the reasons for the changes that have taken place, as well as current challenges that contribute to the slowdown of global trade. They include the accumulation of structural problems leading to the current crisis of the multilateral trade system and, in particular, the transition of trade conflicts to a new stage. Along with the direct effects generated as a result of the imposition of protectionist measures, the significance of indirect effects is growing against the background of the current events - there is a growing trade and political uncertainty affecting international trade flows. It is unlikely that global trade growth will recover soon, due to structural problems that need to be resolved multilaterally. Small positive effects are possible in case of gradual de-escalation of trade conflicts, but the current outcomes do not allow to draw certain conclusions.

Keywords: world trade; trade policy; international trade organizations; protectionism; trade liberalization; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2020:i:45:p:174-182

DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2020-45-1-7

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