The Russian manufacturing passing the COVID-19 crisis: Macro-level view

V. Salnikov
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V. Salnikov: Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2021, vol. 52, issue 4, 246-252

Abstract: The paper provides an express analysis of factors, general results and sectoral features of the COVID-crisis in the Russian industry. Six sectoral clusters are identified by the criteria of similarity of dynamics in production volumes, profits and investment activity. The most important sectoral factors that impacted the trends in the indicators are identified. It is shown that the obvious success observed in the first half of 2021 (namely the general growth in output and profits) is the effect of the deferred demand and the forced switch of demand from services to goods (meanwhile growth in food production, chemistry and wood and paper production continued to be based on net export growth). The factors that emerged by mid-2021 and negatively affected the development of manufacturing in the short term are indicated: the first is the exhausting deferred demand and, the second is the intensifying cost inflation. Meantime there is one supporting growth factor which is oil export recovery.

Keywords: manufacturing production; crisis; COVID-19; industrial structure; factors of industrial development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 L16 L60 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2021:i:52:p:246-252

DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-52-4-13

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