Scenarios of transformation: Decarbonization of the Russian economy

M. Salikhov
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M. Salikhov: Institute for Energy and Finance, Moscow, Russia

Journal of the New Economic Association, 2022, vol. 56, issue 4, 213-219

Abstract: The paper presents a forecast of the structure of power sector in Russia in 2050 under various scenarios for the transformation of the energy system and the possible prices for greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 emissions in the power sector by 2050 can be 32.7% lower compared to 2020 in sustainable development scenario (SDS) with an average CO2 price of $27/t over the period. In this scenario, the capacity structure will shift in favor of an increase in the share of nuclear and gas generation with a reduction in coal generation. In the scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions (Net Zero), the price of CO2 is 37% higher compared to the scenario of sustainable development ($37/t). The implementation of the latter scenario will reduce emissions in the power industry by 40% compared to 2020. The article gives recommendations for changing the economic policy that would accelerate the decarbonization of the Russian economy and identifies key risks of decarbonization.

Keywords: decarbonization; greenhouse gas emission; CO2; emissions pricing; power sector; heat generation sector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q28 Q42 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nea:journl:y:2022:i:56:p:213-219

DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-56-4-12

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