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Optimization of the Russian Macroeconomic Policy for 2016–2020

Gilmundinov V. M. (), Melnikov V. V. () and Petrov S. P. ()
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Gilmundinov V. M.: Новосибирский государственный университет

World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, 2016, vol. 16, issue 4, 5-19

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the methodological issues of economic policy elaboration and optimization of economic policy instruments’ parameters. Actuality of this research is provided by growing complexity of social and economic systems, important state role in their functioning as well as multi-targets of economic policy with limited number of instruments. Considering a big variety of internal and external restrictions of social and economic development of modern Russia it has wide range of applications. Extension of the dynamic econometric general equilibrium input-output model of the Russian economy with development of the sub-model of economic policy optimization is a key purpose of this study. The sub-model of economic policy optimization allows estimating impact of economic policy measures on target indicators as well as defining optimal values of their parameters. For this purpose, we extend Robert Mundell’s approach by considering dynamic optimization and wider range of economic policy targets and measures. Use of general equilibrium input-output model allows considering impact of economic policy on different aggregate markets and sectors. Approbation of suggested approach allows us to develop multi-variant forecast for the Russian economy for 2016–2020, define optimal values of monetary policy parameters and compare considered variants by values of social losses. The obtained results could be further used in theoretical as well as applied researches concerned with issues of economic policy elaboration and forecasting of social and economic development.

Keywords: economic policy; forecast; general equilibrium; inflation; input-output; monetary policy; optimization; simulation; targeting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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