 Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come?Trömborg, Erik, Jåstad, Eirik Ogner, Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland and Rørstad, Per Kristian Journal of Forest Economics, 2020, vol. 35, issue 4, 305-336 Abstract: The forest-based sectors are in a period of significant transition due to climate change mitigation efforts, changes in forest products demand and other external mega-trends. This study applies a three-step Delphi process to identify the main drivers and formulate possible scenarios for the development of the Norwegian forest sector towards 2040. The impacts of these scenarios are analyzed with a partial equilibrium forest sector model covering the Nordic countries. Experts in the sectors expected a further decrease in demand for printing and writing paper, but a significant increase in wood-based biofuel production. A “conservative†scenario, with a prolongation of current trends and no wood-based biofuel production, leads to declining wood prices but still slightly increased harvest levels in the Nordic countries—especially in Norway, due to increased timber volumes available for harvest. In a “green†scenario, the production of wood-based biofuels and new forest products increased, leading to higher wood prices from the end of the next decade. This will further decrease the production of printing paper. Keywords: Delphi; Forest sector modeling; Partial equilibrium; Forest product markets (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:now:jnljfe:112.00000517 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Journal of Forest Economics from now publishers |
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