Foreword

Stephen Millard ()

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2025, issue 17, 3-4

Abstract: January 20, 2025, saw the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. This was followed by a plethora of Executive Orders and further threats of tariffs against various countries including Mexico, Canada, Colombia and China. The result of the US election means that trying to forecast what will happen to the global economy has become even more difficult than usual. The uncertainty around what President Trump will do, and the effects of any of these actions on the United States and the rest of the world, is much greater than usual and this is reflected in the wider fan charts contained in this Outlook. On the bright side, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems to be holding, though the Middle East remains a tinderbox. And the election of President Trump could lead to the end of Russia’s occupation of parts of Ukraine, though I am not holding my breath on that one.

Date: 2025
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