Foreword

Stephen Millard ()

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2025, issue 19, 3-4

Abstract: When President Trump rolled back on his 'Liberation Day' tariffs, he gave countries 90 days to negotiate new trade deals with the United States. Some countries, including the United Kingdom, Vietnam and Japan, did just that. For those countries that did not, President Trump has announced new tariff rates to be implemented in August. As I wrote three months ago, the announcement of these tariffs threaten to disrupt the whole global trading system and the global supply chains that have been built up over recent decades. And the size of the threatened tariffs – which will increase the effective US tariff rate to over 15 per cent – remains on a par with the tariffs put into place by the Smoot–Hawley Act in 1930, which contributed to a collapse in world trade, as other countries retaliated, and prolonged the Great Depression. Meanwhile, negotiations continue, and we left with continuing uncertainty around what will happen moving forward. And trying to forecast the global economy in such circumstances – as we attempt in this Outlook – is certainly not easy.

Date: 2025
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