The world in its grip: Covid-19

Barry Naisbitt (), Janine Boshoff (), Dawn Nicole Holland (), Ian Hurst (), Iana Liadze (), Cyrille Lenoel (), Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram () and Kemar Whyte ()

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2021, issue 1, 5-18

Abstract: Economic activity last year was dominated by Covid-19, the measures taken to prevent its spread and the economic policy actions taken to support economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the second quarter of 2020 saw a fall of 7 per cent in global GDP. Despite the rebound in the third quarter, the fall in global GDP of 3.75 per cent in 2020 far outweighed the fall in the global financial crisis. By the end of 2020, global GDP was around $9 trillion lower than anticipated before the pandemic took hold. The shortfall in GDP compared to the pre-pandemic trend is shown in figure 1, with the shortfall expected to persist. The 6 per cent reduction in the level of global GDP in 2024 relative to our pre-pandemic outlook represents a scarring effect from the crisis.

Date: 2021
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