Vaccinations and US fiscal stimulus boost growth prospects

Barry Naisbitt (), Janine Boshoff (), Dawn Nicole Holland (), Ian Hurst (), Iana Liadze (), Cyrille Lenoel (), Corrado Macchiarelli, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sánchez Juanino, Craig Thamotheram () and Kemar Whyte ()

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2021, issue 2, 5-22

Abstract: Global economic activity has increased in the past six months after the sharp fall in the first half of 2020 when Covid-19 and the measures taken to prevent its spread caused a deep fall in economic activity. After the 6.25 per cent fall in global output in the second quarter of last year when the first wave of the pandemic hit, output rebounded strongly in the third quarter (by 7.75 per cent). With this rebound, we estimate that global GDP at the end of 2020 was around $8 trillion lower (some 6 per cent of GDP) than anticipated before the pandemic took hold. The shortfall in GDP compared to the pre-pandemic trend is shown in figure 1, and the gap between our current projection for global GDP and our pre-pandemic projection is expected to persist.

Date: 2021
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