Box A: US inflation - peaking soon?

Barry Naisbitt (), Corrado Macchiarelli and Patricia Sánchez Juanino

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2021, issue 4, 24-31

Abstract: Over the past four months, CPI inflation in the US has run at over 5 per cent year-on-year, the highest since mid-2008, and was 5.4 per cent in September. Prior to 2008, the previous time headline CPI inflation was this high was in 1991. A key question of policy debate is whether this increase in inflation will be just temporary, as in 2008, the start of a prolonged period of inflation above the 2 per cent target, or worse still whether inflation will continue to escalate as it did in the 1970s and early 1980s. Either of the latter two outcomes will represent a significant monetary accommodation by the Federal Reserve and a departure from the recent monetary policy practice.

Date: 2021
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