Box B: Has headline inflation peaked in the G7 economies?

Barry Naisbitt () and Joanna Nowinska ()

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2023, issue 9, 21-27

Abstract: Over the past 18 months annual inflation in advanced economies has been driven up sharply by a combination of factors including supply-chain pressures in the global economic recovery from Covid-19 and the effects on energy and food prices from Russia's war in Ukraine. In this box we examine recent trends in headline annual consumer price inflation in the G7 economies with a focus on the issue of whether inflation has peaked. Our Global Outlook forecast suggests that annual OECD inflation will be lower this year than last, a view that holds for all the G7 economies. This box examines recent monthly data on annual inflation in detail to provide more evidence on the issue. We tentatively conclude that, based on monthly data, annual headline inflation may already have peaked in the United States and Canada in the middle of last year. For the other G7 members, more time will be needed before such a conclusion about the timing of a peak can be drawn conclusively.

Date: 2023
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