Appendix A: Summary of key forecast assumptions

Iana Liadze ()

National Institute Global Economic Outlook, 2023, issue 9, 43-48

Abstract: The forecasts for the world and the UK economies are produced using the National Institute's global econometric model, NiGEM. NiGEM has been in use at NIESR for forecasting and policy analysis since 1987, and is also used by a group of more than 40 model subscribers, mainly in the policy community. Further details, including articles by model users, are provided in the May 2018 edition of the National Institute Economic Review. Most countries in the OECD are modelled separately, and there are also separate models for Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Egypt, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan and Vietnam. The rest of the world is modelled through regional blocks so that the model is global in scope. All models contain the determinants of domestic demand, export and import volumes, prices, current accounts and net assets. Output is determined in the long run by factor inputs and technical progress interacting through a production function, but is also affected by demand in the short to medium term. Economies are linked through trade, competitiveness and financial markets and are fully simultaneous. Further details on NiGEM are available at https://www.niesr.ac.uk/nigem-macroeconomic-model.

Date: 2023
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