Detecting Cyclical Turning Points: The ABCD Approach and Two Probabilistic Indicators

Jacques Anas () and Laurent Ferrara

Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2004, vol. 2004, issue 2, 193-225

Abstract: The intricate issue of detecting and forecasting macroeconomic cycles turning points has been once more perfectly illustrated with the global downturn experienced by most countries around the world in 2000-2001. Governments and Central Banks are very sensitive to economic indicators showing signs of deterioration in order to adjust their policies sufficiently in advance to avoid further deterioration or even a recession. These indicators require at least two qualities: they must be reliable and they must provide a readable signal as soon as possible. In this paper, we discuss ...

Keywords: Classical and growth cycle; Peak and trough; Turning point; Probabilistic indicators; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (42)

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