New indicators for tracking growth in real time

Troy Matheson ()

OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2014, vol. 2013, issue 2, 51-71

Abstract: We develop monthly indicators for tracking short-run trends in real GDP growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good real GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.

Keywords: Nowcasting; short-term forecasting; real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time (2011)
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