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OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

2009 - 2016

Continuation of Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

From OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys
Contact information at EDIRC.

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Volume 2015, issue 2, 2016

Frequency based co-movement of inflation in selected euro area countries pp. 1-13 Downloads
Aviral Tiwari, Niyati Bhanja and Arif Billah Dar
The role of data revisions and disagreement in professional forecasts pp. 1-39 Downloads
Eva A. Arnold
A comparison of economic indicator analysis and Markov switching methods concerning the cycle phase dynamics: report pp. 1-27 Downloads
Pami Dua and Vineeta Sharma
Reverse-engineering the business cycle with Petri nets pp. 1-28 Downloads
Johnnie Linn
The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013 pp. 1-22 Downloads
Louise Holm

Volume 2015, issue 1, 2015

The importance of updating: Evidence from a Brazilian nowcasting model pp. 5-22 Downloads
Daniela Bragoli, Luca Metelli and Michele Modugno
The world and “The world business cycle chronology” pp. 23-40 Downloads
Allan Layton, Anirvan Banerji and Lakshman Achuthan
Business cycle dynamics: A bottom-up approach with Markov-chain measurement pp. 41-61 Downloads
Christian Müller and Eva Köberl
The role of oscillatory modes in US business cycles pp. 63-81 Downloads
Andreas Groth, Michael Ghil, Stéphane Hallegatte and Patrice Dumas
Construction of composite business cycle indicators in a scarce data environment: A case study for Abu Dhabi pp. 83-95 Downloads
Klaus Abberger and Wolfgang Nierhaus

Volume 2014, issue 2, 2015

Tracking economic activity in the euro area: Multivariate direct filter approach pp. 5-25 Downloads
Ginters Buss
What's behind the survey values?: An analysis of individual forecasters' behaviour pp. 25-43 Downloads
Maritta Paloviita and Matti Viren
On the robustness of balance statistics with respect to nonresponse pp. 45-62 Downloads
Christian Seiler
Cohesion within the euro area and the US: A wavelet-based view pp. 63-76 Downloads
António Rua and Artur Silva Lopes

Volume 2014, issue 1, 2014

Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach pp. 1-37 Downloads
Sumru Altug and Erhan Uluceviz
Making leading indicators more leading: A wavelet-based method for the construction of composite leading indexes pp. 1-21 Downloads
Marco Gallegati
Dating business cycle turning points: The Greek economy during 1970-2012 and the recent recession pp. 1-24 Downloads
Ekaterini Tsouma
Turning point chronology for the euro area: A distance plot approach pp. 1-14 Downloads
Peter Martey Addo, Monica Billio and Dominique Guégan
Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time. (Report): An experience of the 2008-09 recession pp. 1-26 Downloads
Sergey Smirnov

Volume 2013, issue 2, 2014

General introduction: Short-term forecasting methods joint issue with Économie et Prévision pp. 5-10 Downloads
Hélène Erkel-Rousse and Michael Graff
Short-term forecasting of French GDP growth using dynamic factor models pp. 11-50 Downloads
Marie Bessec and Catherine Doz
New indicators for tracking growth in real time pp. 51-71 Downloads
Troy Matheson
Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature pp. 73-107 Downloads
Karim Barhoumi, Olivier Darné and Laurent Ferrara
Constructing a conditional GDP fan chart with an application to French business survey data pp. 109-127 Downloads
Matthieu Cornec
Do business tendency surveys help in forecasting employment?: A real-time evidence for Switzerland pp. 129-151 Downloads
Boriss Siliverstovs

Volume 2013, issue 1, 2013

A note on the cyclical behaviour of the income distribution pp. 1-7 Downloads
Burkhard Heer
Business cycle synchronisation in the European Union: The effect of the common currency pp. 1-14 Downloads
Periklis Gogas
The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence pp. 1-23 Downloads
Vitor Castro
Extracting GDP signals from the monthly indicator of economic activity: Evidence from Chilean real-time data pp. 1-16 Downloads
Michael Pedersen

Volume 2012, issue 2, 2013

Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector: a comparison between time series and survey estimates pp. 5-19 Downloads
Marco Malgarini and Antonio Paradiso
Nowcasting Irish GDP pp. 21-31 Downloads
Antonello D'Agostino, Kieran McQuinn and Derry O’Brien
Day-of-the-week effect in Consumer Confidence Index: The case of Turkey pp. 33-42 Downloads
Sadullah Çelik and Huseyin Kaya
Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy pp. 43-65 Downloads
João Issler, Hilton Hostalacio Notini and Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues
Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany pp. 67-89 Downloads
Ivan Savin and Peter Winker

Volume 2012, issue 1, 2012

Measuring confidence and uncertainty during the financial crisis: Evidence from the CFS Survey. Report pp. 1-16 Downloads
Horst Entorf, Christian Knoll and Liliya Sattarova
On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle pp. 1-18 Downloads
Sandra Bilek-Steindl
Should transportation output be included as part of the coincident indicators system? pp. 1-24 Downloads
Kajal Lahiri and Wenxiong Yao
An Analysis of the Embedded Frequency Content of Macroeconomic Indicators and their Counterparts using the Hilbert-Huang Transform pp. 1-31 Downloads
Patrick Crowley and Tony Schildt
Euro area business cycles pp. 1-31 Downloads
Atılım Seymen

Volume 2011, issue 2, 2012

A Cyclical Analysis of Economic Activity in Serbia pp. 5-28 Downloads
Jelena Radovic-Stojanovic
Energy Prices and Business Cycles: Lessons from a Simulated Small Open Economy Model pp. 29-47 Downloads
Torsten Schmidt and Tobias Zimmermann
Are the New Member States Converging on the Euro Area?: A Business Cycle Analysis for Economies in Transition pp. 49-68 Downloads
Andrew Hughes Hallett and Christian Richter
Measuring Uncertainty and Disagreement in the European Survey of Professional Forecasters pp. 69-103 Downloads
Cristina Conflitti
A Note on Band-Pass Filters Based on the Hodrick-Prescott Filter and the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators pp. 105-109 Downloads
Hiroshi Yamada

Volume 2011, issue 1, 2011

Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data pp. 5-28 Downloads
Ece Oral, Hülya Saygili, Mesut Saygili and S. Özge Tuncel
Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation? pp. 29-53 Downloads
Rolf Scheufele
The Forecasting Performance of Composite Leading Indicators: Does Globalisation Matter? pp. 55-72 Downloads
Ferdinand Fichtner, Rasmus Rüffer and Bernd Schnatz
Forecasting with Leading Indicators by means of the Principal Covariate Index pp. 73-92 Downloads
Christiaan Heij, Dick van Dijk and Patrick Groenen
Aggregate Comovements, Anticipation, and Business Cycles pp. 93-110 Downloads
David R. F. Love

Volume 2010, issue 2, 2010

An Evaluation of the Growth and Unemployment Forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters pp. 1-28 Downloads
Carlos Bowles, Roberta Friz, Veronique Genre, Geoff Kenny, Aidan Meyler and Tuomas Rautanen
Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey pp. 1-26 Downloads
Helmut Lütkepohl
Application of Three Non-Linear Econometric Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru pp. 1-25 Downloads
Gabriel Rodríguez
The Industrial Cycle of Milan as an Accurate Leading Indicator for the Italian Business Cycle pp. 1-17 Downloads
Matteo Pelagatti and Valeria Negri
Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights pp. 1-13 Downloads
Klaus Abberger and Wolfgang Nierhaus

Volume 2010, issue 1, 2010

Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model pp. 1-22 Downloads
Elena Angelini, Marta Banbura and Gerhard Rünstler
Evaluating German business cycle forecasts under an asymmetric loss function pp. 1-18 Downloads
Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche and Boriss Siliverstovs
Do benchmark revisions affect the consumption-to-output and investment-to-output ratios in Germany? pp. 1-14 Downloads
Thomas Knetsch and Hans-Eggert Reimers
Chain-linking in Austrian quarterly national accounts and the business cycle pp. 1-12 Downloads
Marcus Scheiblecker
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