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Migration intentions in CESEE – a descriptive analysis

Anna Raggl

Focus on European Economic Integration, 2017, issue Q4/17, 52-69

Abstract: Against the background of high emigration from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) in the past few decades, we study the current migration intentions of individuals in ten CESEE countries using individual-level data from the 2014 wave of the OeNB Euro Survey. Apart from the overall share of people that intend to leave their home countries, we identify the gender, age and education profiles of these prospective migrants. Using population pyramids for visualization, we compare the current population structure with a hypothetical one that would arise if all people planning to emigrate would in fact do so. We find that, on average, 11.4% of individuals aged 25 to 39 intend to leave their CESEE home countries, a share that represents a lower-bound estimate. Migration intentions vary considerably across countries; in general, they appear to be more common among men and among individuals with a relatively low level of education.

Keywords: migration intentions; population pyramids; CESEE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J11 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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