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Migration intentions in CESEE: sociodemographic profiles of prospective emigrants and their motives for moving

Anna Raggl

Focus on European Economic Integration, 2019, issue Q1/19, 49-67

Abstract: What are the characteristics of prospective emigrants from Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE)? How many people intend to move? We use data from the 2017 wave of the OeNB Euro Survey to study migration intentions among individuals in CESEE. Our descriptive findings suggest that 8.3% of individuals aged 25 to 64 have the intention to move abroad within the next year. Migration intentions are considerably more common among young people and men. In most of the countries, we do not find significant differences related to educational attainment. The prevalence of migration intentions varies considerably across countries: In non-EU CESEE countries migration intentions are more widespread on average than in CESEE EU countries. Probit estimations confirm our descriptive findings. They further highlight that individual unemployment is a robust predictor of migration intentions in CESEE, while household income is not significantly related to migration intentions. The level of regional development plays a key role in shaping migration intentions, and so do (direct and indirect) networks and trust in institutions. Finally, we find that the level of regional economic development also influences the magnitude of the push effect of individual unemployment. For individuals living in depressed regions, the positive correlation between unemployment and migration intentions is higher.

Keywords: migration intentions; individual-level data; probit; principal component analysis; CESEE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 F22 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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