EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand

Christophe Gouel () and Houssein Guimbard ()

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2019, vol. 101, issue 2, 383-403

Abstract: Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. The model captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: (a) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (b) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (c) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (d) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties—depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74% to 114%, and from 20% to 42%, respectively.

Keywords: Bennett’s law; food demand; food security; nutrition transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aay030 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand (2017) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:101:y:2019:i:2:p:383-403.

Access Statistics for this article

American Journal of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Madhu Khanna, Brian E. Roe, James Vercammen and JunJie Wu

More articles in American Journal of Agricultural Economics from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().

 
Page updated 2021-10-14
Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:101:y:2019:i:2:p:383-403.