Future Cropland Requirements and Projection Sensitivity

W. E. Johnston and G. S. Tolley

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1966, vol. 48, issue 3_Part_I, 597-612

Abstract: Ranges are developed within which it is judged there are two out of three chances that 1968 demand and yield outcomes will occur. Five crop categories for 10 regions are considered. Drawing on a theorem pertaining to the probability distribution of a quotient, we use the foregoing results to estimate ranges for the regional-commodity cells. Ranges for regional cropland totals and national totals for each crop category are estimated as the sum of approximately normally distributed variables. The 1968 ranges are compared with recent acreages to determine if it is likely that particular acreages will expand or contract.

Date: 1966
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