Recreation Projection Based on Demand Analysis

Wayne E. Boyet and George S. Tolley

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1966, vol. 48, issue 4_Part_I, 984-1001

Abstract: The first method of projection extends the Hotelling-Clawson model to include population and income as demand shifters. Price, population, and income elasticities of demand for visits to national parks are estimated, leading to projections of a 225-percent increase in visits by 1980. Partly because this method does not consider the distribution of income, a second method is developed based on visitation rates by distance-income-vacation classes. To project future population by income classes, maximum-likelihood estimators are developed of the mean and variance of the log-normal component of a state's income distribution. The second method is applied to an area recreation complex in western North Carolina and to recreation packages within the area. It suggests a more rapid increase in visits than the first method, due to projected rise in the proportion of the population in upper-income-vacation classes, which have high visitation rates.

Date: 1966
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