Simulation as a Method of Appraising Farm Programs

Fred H. Tyner and Luther G. Tweeten

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1968, vol. 50, issue 1, 66-81

Abstract: Simulation has been used extensively in the management sciences as a complement to more conventional methods of analysis. The procedure has also been applied in analyses of various sectors of the agricultural industry. Simulation can include time lags, nonlinearities, and recursive or reactive effects—without the restrictive assumption of an "optimum" solution. Consequently, it should find increasing application in the study of the effects of farm program alternatives. Simulation is used in this article to portray the workings of an economic model of the U.S. agricultural industry for the years 1930–1960. One simulation describes the levels of key dependent variables throughout the period, as a measure of the model's predictive ability. These results are used to evaluate a second simulation, which assumes no government diversions of commodities or cropland acreage and no payments to farmers.

Date: 1968
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:50:y:1968:i:1:p:66-81.

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