The Existence of Broiler Cycles: An Application of Spectral Analysis

Gordon Rausser and Thomas F. Cargill

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1970, vol. 52, issue 1, 109-121

Abstract: The broiler industry has experienced rapid growth, instability, and structural change during the postwar period. A time-series analysis of important industry variables is presented. Auto-spectral methods are employed to investigate hypothesized 30-month cycles, while cross-spectral methods are utilized to determine if significant lead-lag relationships exist between the various time series. Moreover, these methods, as well as complex demodulation, are used in an attempt to determine the effects of vertical integration. The results cast doubt on the hypothesis that regular cycles of approximately 30 months characterize the broiler industry and suggest that time differences (lead-lag relationships) among various time series are not generally significant. The possible effects of vertical integration generally conform to intuitive notions.

Date: 1970
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