Quarterly Models to Predict Cash Prices of Pork Bellies

Richard J. Foote, John A. Craven and Robert R. Williams

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1972, vol. 54, issue 4_Part_1, 603-610

Abstract: Quarterly three-equation models designed to predict wholesale cash prices for fresh pork bellies at Chicago, quarterly consumption, and end-of-quarter stocks were developed and fitted by three-stage least squares based on data for 1957–1971. This is the first published econometric study relating to this highly volatile commodity. The major methodological contribution is a demand-for-storage equation that combines a Nerlove-type price expectations adjustment formulation with expectations on the supply side based on data published in the USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs. Useful forecasts of both cash prices and futures quotations were given through the first half of 1972.

Date: 1972
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