Analysis of the Accuracy of USDA Crop Forecasts

G. Gunnelson, W. D. Dobson and S. Pamperin

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1972, vol. 54, issue 4_Part_1, 639-645

Abstract: Accuracy of USDA crop forecasts increased moderately over the 1929–1970 period. However, USDA's first forecasts of crop production tended to underestimate crop size and the size of year-to-year changes in production. USDA also undercompensates for errors in earlier forecasts when developing revised crop forecasts.

Date: 1972
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