Effect of Public Price Forecasts on Market Price Variation: A Stochastic Cobweb Example

David J. Smyth

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1973, vol. 55, issue 1, 83-88

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of less than perfectly accurate forecasting in a stochastic cobweb model when public announcement of the forecasts influences suppliers' behavior. The forecasts considered in the analysis reduce the time variance of price, but the forecasts that minimize the variance are not always the most accurate.

Date: 1973
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:55:y:1973:i:1:p:83-88.

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