An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Coffee and Cocoa

J. Kimball Dietrich and Alfredo D. Gutierrez

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1973, vol. 55, issue 1, 93-99

Abstract: Predictive performance of short-term forecasts of production is evaluated using a technique which minimizes the average squared difference between actual and forecast values. Forecasting errors are decomposed into two components reflecting the forecast system and a residual component. Many forecasts resulted in underestimation and contained large but unsystematic errors.

Date: 1973
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