A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures Market

Raymond M. Leuthold and Peter A. Hartmann

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1979, vol. 61, issue 3, 482-489

Abstract: Forward pricing is a primary role of livestock futures markets. A semi-strong form test of efficiency examines whether or not the prices in a market reflect all publicly available information. An econometric forecasting model is constructed to serve as a norm against which to test futures market forward-pricing abilities. Utilizing alternative methods of evaluation, results demonstrate that the live-hog futures market cannot be relied upon to reflect accurately and consistently subsequent cash prices; hence, it is inefficient.

Date: 1979
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:61:y:1979:i:3:p:482-489.

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