Aggregated Personalistic Beliefs on Yields of Selected Crops Estimated Using ARIMA Processes

David Bessler ()

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1980, vol. 62, issue 4, 666-674

Abstract: This study investigates the empirical relationships between the aggregated elicited probability distributions from individual farmers on yields of three 1977 California field crops and their data-based representations. The comparison suggests that for expected values, the ARIMA representations agree with the aggregated elicited distributions. However, for higher moments, the ARIMA processes do much poorer in representing the elicited distributions.

Date: 1980
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:62:y:1980:i:4:p:666-674.

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