Forecasting Short-Run Fed Beef Supplies with Estimated Data

James N. Trapp

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1981, vol. 63, issue 3, 457-465

Abstract: Unknown aggregate data series for the placement weight, growth rate, and sex composition of cattle placed on feed are estimated. The estimates are made by treating the unknown data as time-varying parameters of a cattle-on-feed growth and inventory stimulation model. A nonlinear optimization algorithm is used to estimate the unknown parameter series that optimize the model's simulation accuracy. Incorporation of the estimated series into a traditional econometric fed-beef-supply forecast model improved the model's forecast accuracy. The methodology used provides a general procedure for estimating unknown aggregate data using simulation models based upon microrelationships.

Date: 1981
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:63:y:1981:i:3:p:457-465.

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