Portfolio Diversification, Futures Markets, and Uncertain Consumption Prices

Peter Berck and Stephen Cecchetti

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1985, vol. 67, issue 3, 497-507

Abstract: This paper examines the robustness of the Keynes-Hicks backwardation hypothesis for futures markets in a model that admits diversification and inflation protection as speculative motives. It presents a criterion in terms of the correlation of futures price with anticipated consumption net of other asset holdings for the Keynes-Hicks proposition to be true. The paper finds the effect of changes in net wealth and commodity demand on the risk premium, spread, open interest, and storage.

Date: 1985
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:67:y:1985:i:3:p:497-507.

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