Pricing and Storage of Field Crops: A Quarterly Model Applied to Soybeans

Mark Lowry, Joseph Glauber, Mario Miranda () and Peter Helmberger

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, vol. 69, issue 4, 740-749

Abstract: This paper considers the role of competitive storage in markets for annually harvested field crops. A quarterly model is presented that considers the allocative role of storage both within and between crop years. Rational price expectations are endogenous variables calculated by a recursive method. Forward stochastic simulations using the model generate data that can be used to characterize the distributions of the variables. In the base case, the model is assigned parameter values from a quarterly econometric model of the U.S. soybean market. The results shed light on the distributions of the quarterly variables, including the rational price expectations, and show how these distributions are affected by changes in the carrying charge.

Date: 1987
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