U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Nonsymmetric Disturbances

Paul Gallagher

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, vol. 69, issue 4, 796-803

Abstract: National average soybean yields are skewed with a relatively high chance of low yields. Maximum likelihood estimates support this hypothesis. Revised forecasts which account for skewed yields are positioned higher than forecasts based on the illusion of a symmetric distribution. Also, yield instability has been increasing steadily; the standard deviation of the soybean yield distribution is twenty-five percent higher in the late 1980s than it was in the early 1970s.

Date: 1987
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