Conditional Qualitative Forecasting

Peter M. Feather and Michael S. Kaylen

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1989, vol. 71, issue 1, 195-201

Abstract: A bayesian method for conditioning the forecast of a qualitative variable on a vector of other qualitative variables is presented. An application is made to forecast the direction of quarterly hog price movements using the direction forecasts from an econometric model, an ARIMA model, and an expert as the conditioning vector. Over the out-of-sample 1976–86 period, only the expert outperformed the conditional qualitative forecast. The accuracy of the conditional forecast improved as the bayesian parameters were updated.

Date: 1989
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:71:y:1989:i:1:p:195-201.

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