Forecasting Performance of Corn and Soybean Harvest Futures Contracts

David Kenyon, Eluned Jones and M. Anya McGuirk

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1993, vol. 75, issue 2, 399-407

Abstract: In contrast to earlier periods, post 1973 spring prices of December corn and November soybean futures contracts have not been good forecasts of harvest price. Regression analysis of price forecast variance before and after 1973 indicates that the decline in forecasting accuracy is related to increased yield forecast errors and to reduced interference of government loan rates on market price determination. Since these futures are poor forecasts, producers should not rely on futures prices alone to allocate resources at planting time unless they simultaneously forward price.

Date: 1993
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