The Problem of the Persistent Hog Price Cycle: A Chaotic Solution

Marcus A. Streips

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995, vol. 77, issue 5, 1397-1403

Abstract: A persistent hog-corn price ratio has been known to exist since the early 1930s and many attempts have been made since then to model its dynamics. That these models have been ineffectual as forecasting tools is apparent by the fact that the hog cycle has persisted to this day. In this paper I propose that increased forecasting accuracy can be obtained by adjusting traditional forecasting models so that they account for deterministic, nonlinear processes. With improved forecasts, the costs of countercyclical production will decrease, dampening and perhaps even eliminating the cycle. The chaotic dynamics of the hog-corn price cycle is confirmed, and chaotic models of this system are developed. The analysis provides the framework for developing a function to forecast the dynamics of the hog-corn price ratio.

Date: 1995
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243377 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:77:y:1995:i:5:p:1397-1403.

Access Statistics for this article

American Journal of Agricultural Economics is currently edited by Madhu Khanna, Brian E. Roe, James Vercammen and JunJie Wu

More articles in American Journal of Agricultural Economics from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Oxford University Press ().