Does Market Timing Contribute to the Cattle Cycle?

Stephen Hamilton and Terry L. Kastens

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2000, vol. 82, issue 1, 82-96

Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that cyclical cattle inventories are driven by exogenous shocks. This article examines a second possible contributing factor to the cattle cycle: a market timing effect that arises from individual attempts to maintain countercyclical inventories. The model uncovers an important conceptual point: to the extent that cycles are driven by exogenous shocks, a representative producer should outperform one who maintains a constant inventory; whereas, for cycles induced by market timing, a representative producer should underperform one with a constant inventory. Simulated net returns over 1974−98 reveal that a constant-inventory manager significantly outperformed the representative U.S. producer, which indicates that market timing influences the cattle cycle. Copyright 2000, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2000
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